Friday, December 6, 2013

It's a Dry Cold. A Dry, Windy Cold.

Dear Weather and News Forecasters:

It was not -38 degrees Celsius in Regina this morning, nor was it -41in Saskatoon. The air temperatures were in the -20 to -30 degree C range. I checked several sources that measure air temperature. You are spreading misinformation and lies. Please stop it.

I know, I know - if I wait for the detailed discussion of the weather, you will, at some stage, acknowledge that although the air temperature is a balmy -23 C, the windchill effect makes you feel as though the temperature is -35. Invariably, and with more frequency, people are simply hearing the lowest "temperature" you broadcast, and, without fail, you loudly and boldly proclaim the artificial windchill "temperature" as if it is in fact the air temperature. You are feeding ignorance. I suppose we should expect this from people who make a living providing predictions, which, by most accounts, are consistently wrong. It's an interesting line of work.

Since the implementation of this new "equivalent temperature" treatment of windchill, which has only been in use for approximately 10 years, people take great daily pride in extolling daily winter "temperatures" that rarely reach above -25. I grow hot with rage recalling the number of recent occasions when work colleagues and elevator strangers declared to all present that "it's -53 out there - can you believe that?" No. I cannot, because it is a lie. It is -26, but it's breezy. As best as I can determine, the last time the actual recorded air temperature in Saskatchewan dipped below -50, was at Elrose in 2002, when a reading of -51.0 was recorded. However, if you listen to street talk, office noise and radio, it seems like -50 is a weekly occurence in January and February. In fact, the average daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Saskatoon in January are -12 and -22. That sounds pretty f*cking balmy compared to what I'm hearing.

Before the implementation of the current "equivalent temperature" treatment of windchill, the Canadian government used a relative measurement which factored in air temperature and wind speed to provide a scale indicating how quickly heat would be lost. You may recall windchill measurements like "1400", which was the threshold for frostbite to occur. Apparently, these measurements were confusing for people, because people are simple and they can only understand one-dimensional units of measurement. Of course, the index was an attempt to provide a comparative measure of compounded factors - temperature and wind. So one single unit of measure - ie. temperature - is not capable of providing a relevant measurement. Of course, mathematical impossibility has never stood in the way of human fiction.

In their wisdom, the U.S. and Canada agreed in 2001 to move to an "equivalent temperature" model, wherein they would use a series of formulas to arrive at a fictional temperature that is supposed to account for the cooling effect of wind speed. They just as easily could have chosen wind speed, and not temperature, as the single unit of measurement. Then your forecast would be as follows: "The wind is 5km/h today, but with the temperature at -18, it will feel like a true wind of 19km/h... so bundle up." That seems ridiculous. So should your fictional temperatures. But people love your fictional temperatures, because people love extreme weather. Too many people are taking odd pleasure in repeating the ridiculously low temperatures you report and it sickens me, mostly because the vast majority appear to actually believe the fictional temperature is, in fact, the real temperature.

Frankly, you don't know how I feel about certain wind speeds. If I'm facing away from the wind, it doesn't affect my temperature much at all. And -30 with no wind is still a very different sensation than -20 with a 17km/h wind, which Environment Canada tells us is equivalent to -30. In -30 and no wind, I'm not wearing a touque for a short walk - at -20 with a 17km/h wind, I'm wearing a damn touque. It's not the same f*cking thing. Give me the temperature, and give me the wind. I will cope accordingly, and you will refrain from spreading lies and misinformation. What about the sun. Haven't you ever felt the warmth of the sun on a clear, still -30 day? What about surface warming? Why don't you report that, "it's -30 outside, but with no wind and surface heating, it feels like -20"? If we're inventing temperatures, let's not do a half-ass job. Your profession is based on making consistently inaccurate predictions, and no one holds you accountable anyway.

And while we're on the subject, could you please tell all the ingrates from southern Ontario and the East Coast that there's no such thing as a "wet cold" and a "dry cold" in terms of winter temperatures on the prairies. Invariably, someone will advise that -20 in Saskatchewan isn't really that bad because it's a "dry cold". Of course it is. At -20, the air doesn't contain any moisture because it's physically impossible. In fact,, anywhere below 0 degrees, water is virtually non-existent in the air. See the chart below, which is based on physics, not feelings.



As such, I don't frankly care that some people "feel" that -4 in Toronto is colder than -4 in Saskatchewan because of the "dampness" - perhaps it's because Toronto is a cold, dark blackness of a settlement that smells of urine and is run by an addict. It doesn't give me warm feelings either. But -10 in Saskatchewan is colder and feels colder than - 4 in Toronto. At one time I had in my possession a copy of a study conducted by the Canadian Armed Forces which attempted to measure the "damp cold" effect. I have failed to find my copy of the study, so you will have to take my word (as we take your word respecting next Friday's weather) that the soldiers could not effectively distinguish between a damp cold and a dry cold at temperatures where it was even possible to alter the humidity level (see above chart respecting restrictions). Cold is cold, and people can't tell the difference.

And when we're dealing with important factors like, "will my vehicle start this morning", it depends on solely one thing: real air temperature. Your car doesn't care whether it's dry, wet or windy - it's simply a matter of temperature.

Now don't get me wrong on this. I'm not saying that wind has no effect on your body - it surely does. But wind doesn't change the air temperature, which is the only actual fact you have to report, in addition to the wind speed. I just take offence that you continue to report how I'm going to feel when I go outside as a fictional temperature. If weather is going to be based on feelings, why not just go all-in and report how you feel about the weather every day. Consider the wind, consider the sun, consider your coffee that morning and the quality of your date last night - and then just throw something out there... -12. Frankly, it's not going to be any less accurate than your forecast.

Frozen In Fictional Feelings,

DJD